Friday, July 31, 2009

OSG College Football 2009 Predictions: Sun Belt Conference

Arkansas State Red Wolves

2008 Record: 6-6 Overall, 4-3 in the SBC

Arkansas State is highly motivated this season because of the way 2008 ended. The Red Wolves defeated FAU but the Owls went bowling and the Red Wolves stayed home.

Things To Like About Arkansas State:

Reggie Arnold: Arnold is a playmaker in every sense of the word. Can you believe Arnold, a senior from Little Rock McClellan High School, isn’t carrying the rock in the SEC? All Arnold has accomplished with the Red Wolves is gain 3,210 yards in his career and if he gains 1,000 yards this year can join an exclusive fraternity of backs that have gained 1,000 yards 4 straight seasons. Arnold can run a 4.3 and has size.

Corey Leonard: Leonard can be a superior duel threat quarterback. He has speed and can be pick up huge chunks of yards in the open field plus as an outstanding arm. Arguably the best quarterback in the Sun Belt.

Defense: Arkansas State might have the stoutest defense in the Sun Belt. 2 years ago the Red Wolves lead in league in “D” and was 2nd only behind Troy last year. ASU has a stud in Alex Carrington, the preseason Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year. The senior defensive end lead the Sun Belt in Tackles For Loss in 2008 and was second in sacks. Carrington can blow up a backfield. They also have 8 returning starters on defense.

Things Not To Like About Arkansas State:

Schedule: It’s a doozy. with non-conference road trips to Nebraska (Sept. 12) and Iowa (Oct. 3) with a Sun Belt showdown against Troy in Jonesboro (Sept. 26) sandwiched in between. That’s a brutal stretch. Plus ASU plays at Louisville (Oct. 31) and gets FAU on the road.

OSG’s Take:

Wilkie: I think Arkansas State has the best talent in the league. If ASU can get through their 1st 5 games at 3-2 including a win over Troy, then the Red Wolves should have enough in the tank to claim the Sun Belt title.

Phil: I’m still trying to get past the “stoutest” defense line. No, just kidding. They are a good athletic team who will give Iowa and some of their other opponents fits. Troy is the known quantity in this conference, but I wouldn’t be surprised if State takes over that title.

Nelson: : As long as the coaching staff can keep players out of jail and, allegedly, shooting other people they should be the class of the conference. OSG HQ knows of three alums from the school- two of them are extremely attractive. Go Indians… oops, Wolves…


Troy Trojans

2008 Record: 8-5 Overall, 6-1 in the SBC (2008 Sun Belt Champions)
Lost to Southern Miss 30-27 (F/OT) in New Orleans Bowl

While Arkansas State may have the best talent in the Sun Belt but the Troy Trojans may have the best team in the league. Larry Blakeney has only 12 retuning starters overall but don’t let that number get you to thinking the Trojans are rebuilding. Troy is really good and have been there and done that.

Things To Like About Troy:

BCS Buster: Strange how the Big 12 conference won’t schedule a game at Troy anymore after the Trojans defeated Missouri 24-14 in 2004 and Oklahoma State 41-23 in 2007 at Movie Gallery Memorial Stadium. Troy has gone into the noisy dens of the SEC and have almost beaten LSU twice at Death Valley and has hung around Florida and Georgia making their fans very nervous. 2009 includes 2 road games against SEC opponents at Florida (Sept. 12) and at Arkansas (Nov. 14). Does anyone smell an upset?

Defense: Last year the Trojans had the best defense in the league. It’s a unit that’s fundamentally sound and rarely misses tackles. Defensive End Brandon Lang will be a force to be reckoned with. Lang led the SBC in sacks last year. Boris Lee and Bear Woods are a hell of a linebacking duo. Both Lee and Woods were in the Top 5 in the SBC in tackles in 2008.

Offense: The Trojans have playmakers, 2 at Quarterback. Jamie Hampton and Levi Brown do a great job running the spread offense. Having both might be good for Troy considering Troy’s non league schedule. The receiving corps is outstanding lead by Jerrel Jennigan.

Things Not To Like About Troy:

Offensive Line: The Trojans lost 4 starters on the O-line.

OSG’s Take:

Wilkie: This Troy team is loaded. They will give Florida a run for their money at the Swamp and Arkansas fits in Fayetteville. The Trojans just might win one of those games. Troy will play in a bowl game in 2009.

Phil: Yes, they will be a pain in the ass to the big boys. The difference is the amount of really good players and Trojan man always comes up a little bit short in that department. Without an experienced O-Line, the QB’s will be running for their lives. Again, look for an 8-4 record here.

Nelson: Larry Blakeney has turned Troy into the “factory” of the conference. They WILL be one of those “at-large” teams that will fill a hole somewhere. Bank on it…

Florida Atlantic Owls

2008 Record: 7-6 Overall, 4-3 in the SBC
Defeated Central Michigan 24-21 in Motor City Bowl

Florida Atlantic is the only SBC team to win back to back bowl games and they could make a bowl game for the 3rd straight year and if they do, a win just may be a lock. Head coach Howard Schnellenberger is 6-0 all time in post season bowl games.

Things To Like About FAU:

Recievers: The best set in the SBC. Cortez Gent just missed 1,000 yards in receptions last year and will be QB Rusty Smith’s prime target. Getting TE Jason Harmon back is huge.

Things Not To Like About FAU:

Defense: Only 3 returning starters on defense. There will be some growing pains here.

OSG’s Take:

Wilkie: Here’s FAU’s first 2 games this year: at Nebraska and at South Carolina. They might be beat up in September. I never count a Howard Schnellenberger team out and FAU should have a 8-4, 7-5 type year and make a bowl.

Phil: We love the Schnellenberger though we wonder just how old he is. He has got to be at least 137. They will be a solid SBC team, but nothing special over all. They may sneak in a bowl game because anyone in Division 1 with a winning record gets to play in a bowl game. That is how it works.

Nelson: Rusty Smith has proven himself to be one of the most under-looked, and maybe underrated, quarterbacks in the country. He’s proven he can take apart “higher-level” D1 teams when given the chance. FAU could be the 3rd team from the Sun Belt to move on to the post-season. A real feather in the cap of the conference on the whole…

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders

2008 Record: 5-7 Overall, 3-4 in the SBC

The talent is there to compete but the Blue Raiders need a few breaks along the way.

Things To Like About MTSU:

Big Guys In The Trenches: MTSU has the best lines in the SBC. The O-Line improved greatly during the 2008 season, the D-Line is fast and can get to the quarterback.

Things Not To Like About MTSU:

Schedule: Road games at Clemson, Maryland (who MTSU beat last year), Troy and Florida Atlantic, ouch. The Blue Raiders do host Mississippi State which could be a winnable game. MTSU is 3-28 all time vs the SEC with all 3 wins coming against Vanderbilt.

OSG’s Take:

Wilkie: MTSU will win a game against one of their BCS opponents. If MTSU gets consistent QB play than the Blue Raiders might breakthrough.

Phil: MTSU is football on skates. They have always lit things up and having Tony Franklin as the O-Coordinator won’t change that. Again, like FAU, they are a middle of the pack team. They may make it to 7-5 because of where they play and as we said earlier, 7-5 will get you a bowl game.

Nelson: The big question will be how the Blue Raiders adjust to having Tony Franklin as their new OC. Will the defense be there first, or will the offense click from the beginning…? Look to the MSU game for their D1 win outside of the conference in an, otherwise, average year in the ‘Boro.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks

2008 Record: 4-8 Overall, 3-4 in the SBC

Things To Like About ULM:

Athletes: The Warhawks have great athletes in the skill positions on offense.

Experience: ULM has 17 returning starters for 2009.

Defense: Teams biggest strength. Linebackers Cardia Jackson and Josh Thompson are outstanding combining for 235 tackles, including 11 for losses last season.

Things Not To Like About ULM:

Quarterback: Trey Revell has the edge as starter out of spring. Zach Rhodes is a tremendous athlete that will be on the field if he isn’t the starting QB. Both need to be consistent if the Warhawks want to challenge for the SBC title.

OSG’s Take:

Wilkie: ULM is a hard team to figure out. The Warhawks seem to have the weapons on offense at the skill positions plus a decent O-Line but do they have the QB to get the job done. The defense will keep ULM in games so the offense must do it’s part. 6-6 at best for ULM.

Phil: They typically are an athletically gifted, technically deficient team. They, to quote Steve Spurrier “Should look real good comin’ out of the tunnel”. Don’t expect a lot here, because you won’t get it.

Nelson: that can surprise Alabama can surprise anyone. There’s always “one” of those games that will make a season. Unfortunately, ULM won’t be surprising anyone anymore. Another .500 year in conference and more paychecks outside the conference.

Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin’ Cajuns

2008 Record: 6-6 Overall, 5-2 in the SBC

Louisiana-Lafayette was strong last year and QB Michael Desormeaux was the best in the league. 2008 ending was a bummer for the Rajin’ Cajuns not getting into a bowl game. This year they won’t have Desormeaux back.

Things To Like About Louisiana-Lafayette:

Athletes: Though ULL suffered three huge losses on offense with Desormeaux, stud RB Tyrell Fenroy and WR Jason Cherry, the offense will still have enough quality athletes to keep ULL in games. Let’s see where they are at a mid-season.

Offensive Line: Might be the best in the SBC. They are big and experienced and will give who ever takes over at QB a chance to be successful.

Things Not To Like About Louisiana-Lafayette:

Quarterback: Who will it be? Brad McGuire or Chris Masson, both are sophomores. Both will battle for the job in fall camp.

Schedule: 4 SBC road games in 5 weeks might be too much for ULL to overcome.

OSG’s Take:

Wilkie: Louisiana-Lafayette will be competitive but let’s see how the quarterback battle plays out. ULL might get a key win as they host Kansas State Sept. 12 and the Big 12 hasn’t fared very well on the road vs the Sun Belt. A win over K-State would be a huge confidence boost. After that its road games at LSU and at Nebraska. Ouch.

Phil: They started great last year and faded. They have lost a lot of experience and though the young guys may be good, it takes awhile in the smaller conferences for them to figure it out. They will be competitive later in the season, but will struggle early. Again, middle of the pack at beast, a bowl game only if they catch a humungous break.

Nelson: on the Kansas State idea, and that’s about it for the Cajuns this time around. Notice I left the “Fightin’ Rickey Bustles” comments to our previous commentor.

Florida International Golden Panthers

2008 Record: 5-7 Overall, 3-4 in the SBC

The fighting Cristobals made some big strides last year. With 16 returning starters FIU’s first winning season ever is a possibility

Things To Like About FIU:

Motivated Team: In 7 years of existence FIU has never had a winning season. This year the team is confident this could the year that changes. The pieces are in place in 2009 to breakthrough.

Things Not To Like About FIU:

Depth: While the starters are experienced the 2nd teamers are very young.

OSG’s Take:

Wilkie: You have to like the upside of FIU. Head Coach Mario Cristobal is steadily building the program to compete in the SBC. Will this be the year? It just might. FIU will get beat up on their opener against Alabama then travel to New Jersey hoping to leave Rutgers without wearing concrete boots. 0-2 start looks likely going into their home opener against Toledo before 2 SBC road games. 6-6 is probably the most likely outcome at best for the Fighting Cristobals.

Phil: Ditto most of what Wilkie says. This won’t be the year, the schedule will prohibit that.

Nelson: A lot of teams in the SBC will be .500 this year. So, what does that say about the talent level in the conference altogether…? Either everyone is really average, or they just enjoy beating up on each other and can be decent as a lot.

North Texas Mean Green

2008 Record: 1-11 Overall, 0-7 in the SBC

8 wins in the past 4 years. The once Mighty Mean Green have fallen on hard times.

Things To Like About North Texas:

You Can Only Go Up: With only 1 win last year it can’t be much worse. Oh sure you could go 0-12 but North Texas should win a game or 2 or maybe 3.

Things Not To Like About North Texas:

Defense: They were dead last in the SBC last year. They have 2 good linebackers to build around in Craig Robertson and Tobe Nwigwe but not much else.

OSG’s Take:

Wilkie: Let’s face it, it’s going to be another long year for North Texas. 3 wins might be all they can get.

Phil: They are Green and they are supposed to be mean. They were a “Bottom of the Barrel” team pretty much all of last season. They are probably in over there heads, even in this conference.

Nelson: 3 wins…??? It all depends on how the Mean Green can close the deal at home. Ohio University, Western Kentucky, and Army are all in Denton this time. That will swing the schedule for them. The team could be 1-5 at the half-way point, and that will determine whether they have the fortitude to improve in the second half.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

2008 Record: 2-10, 0-5 in the SBC

Things To Like About WKU:

Influx Of Talent: Western Kentucky has a great recruiting class coming in with impact players who could and should contribute immediately for the Hilltoppers.

Things Not To Like About WKU:

Scoring Points On Offense: This was a big issue last year for WKU only averaging 17 points per game. That has to change for the Hilltoppers to move up the SBC latter.

OSG’s Take:

Wilkie: I’m intrigued with Western Kentucky because of the freshman class coming in. This is a program that should compete for the SBC crown in a few years but right now WKU will take it’s lumps.

Phil: Again, not ready for prime time. They are still adjusting to life in D-1 and that takes a long time. They were a good 1-AA Team, but this is different. Don’t wait on them this year.

Nelson: All I can really say here is: “Keep your head low…” It’s gonna be a long year for a young team… ,

OSG’s Take On The Sun Belt Conference:

SBC Champion:

Wilkie: Arkansas State
Phil: The Other Men of Troy
Nelson: Arkansas State

Best Offensive Player In The SBC

Wilkie: Reggie Arnold – Arkansas State
Phil: Arnold
Nelson: Rusty Smith - FAU

Best Defensive Player In The SBC

Wilkie: Alex Carrington – Arkansas State
Phil: Cardia Johnson- Troy (Just because he has endurance)
Nelson: Brandon Lang - Troy
J-Dub: Reggie Arnold - Arkansas State

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Not a bad job at all of breaking down the Sun Belt. I'm a Blue Raider through and through, and hopefully Franklin can add that spark that we need. If we limit our injuries on "D" and QB Dwight Dasher does better than expected, I see us bowling this year. Troy will be tough, however.

Side note: We never, ever lose to Arkie State at home. We own 'em.


Once again, good job guys. Come visit us on BlueRaiderZone.com and feel free to post your blogs.

Unknown said...

Ark State didn't beat Troy last year, maybe a little more research would help.

John V. Wood said...

Jeremy...

I think the wording is that we "think" they'll be 3-2 heading into that particular game...

If we goofed up a modifier, it's our fault...
Thanks for reading...
J-Dub

football said...

Nice post. i at least know about football some more. thanks for posting.

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