Soapbox NCAA Bracket Breakdown: Midwest

Florida Gators (Rivals.com)

When Florida lost three of four games a few weeks ago, many people (including myself) thought this team had peaked early and were in for an early exit in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. But, let’s remember Florida did this last year, too, dropping 3 straight in mid-February before running the table to claim last year’s National Championship.

The big question now is: Can they be the first team since Duke to repeat?

Looking at the Midwest bracket, ANYTHING short of the Final Four would be a HUGE disappointment.

The number two seed in the region is Wisconsin, who will be without the services of Brian Butch due to an elbow injury. Granted, the Badgers still have Alando Tucker, one of the nation’s best players, but without Butch, I don’t see this team making a serious run in the tournament. Ohio State exploited that interior weakness in the Big Ten finals and I expect each team they play to continue that trend. In fact, I believe the winner of the Georgia Tech/UNLV game will have a serious shot at knocking off Wisconsin in the second round.

Tajuan Porter (goducks.com)

If a 3 seed can be considered a “sleeper,” then Oregon fits that category. They completely dominated the Pac-10 tournament, winning by an average of 20 points a contest and dismantling USC in the finals. This Ducks team reminds me a lot of the ’05 Villanova Wildcats; guards that can absolutely light it up from the outside, but will lose a lot of inside battles.

UPSET CITY?

Two upsets are a possibility as I see it in the Midwest…first let’s take a look at the Winthrop/Notre Dame contest.

Notre Dame comes into the dance winners of six of their last seven contests, the sole defeat by tow-points to Georgetown. The Irish can put up points in bunches like Oregon, shooting almost 40 percent from behind the arc for the season. They are also eighth in the country in scoring at 81.3 points per contest.

Winthrop, earning the automatic bid by winning the Big South Tournament, has never won a NCAA tournament game. But, they’ve never had this much talent. Big men Phillip Williams and Craig Bradshaw provide excellent post-play for the Eagles allowing all-conference guard Michael Jenkins to really bring the heat from the outside (15.4 ppg, 47.3 FG%, 42.6 3-pt.%).

The bottom line is this Winthrop team knows how to win and I believe if they can slow down the Irish from behind the arc, we’ll all be singing the praises of Winthrop by the weekend.

Davidson Wildcats

Also, watch out for the Davidson Wildcats over the Maryland Terrapins. Maryland has played some outstanding basketball down the stretch, particularly DJ Strawberry and PG Greivis Vasquez. They beat Duke twice and UNC down the stretch but, off their home floor, they really struggle (losing to Miami in the opening round of the ACC tournament).

Davidson really hasn’t beaten anyone to write home about this year but watch the play of guard Stephen Curry in this game. He’s the son of former NBA star Del Curry and, like pops, can turn on the afterburners from 3-point range, averaging 21 points per game and shooting an amazing 45% from the land of the three. Also, Davidson shoots around 75% from the free throw line as a team, which is always important come tourney-time.

The play of DJ Strawberry will be key in this one. If he is on, Maryland should advance. If he struggles, the Wildcats could live to play another day.

THE REST OF THE MIDWEST...

In the other matchups, a dangerous Arizona team takes on Purdue team that brings a 1-2 punch with guard David Teague and Forward Carl Landry. Arizona is not that deep, but the five they start have enough firepower to take down Purdue.

AJ Graves (butlersports.com)

Butler and Old Dominion give us a match-up of two mid-major at-large teams. Butler, with junior AJ Graves, will win or lose with their defense, ranked sixth nationally. Old Dominion brings a veteran lineup into the tournament and a deep one, too. Ten players average almost ten minutes a game and they start three seniors and two juniors. Don’t knock experienced “teams” when it comes to March (remember George Mason?).

Georgia Tech comes into the tournament winners of seven of its last nine games. But, like their ACC counterparts Maryland, struggles mightily away from the home cookin’.

UNLV and GT are very similar in athleticism but Georgia Tech shoots the ball a little better overall. UNLV will force some turnovers in this game against a freshmen-laden team. An intriguing match-up here, but I’ll give a slight edge to the Yellow Jackets.

FINAL FOUR BOUND

Overall, I believe that Gators are overwhelming favorites to advance out of the Midwest and make it to Atlanta. If Florida should stumble along the way, I’ll take the Oregon Ducks to advance to the Final Four.

--Brian Eaves