The first thing that stands out when you look at the West bracket is UCLA essentially staying at home until the Final Four, provided they do their job and win. Their first two games will be played Sacramento and the regional matchups, should they advance, will be held in San Jose. UCLA will never have to leave the state of California if they advance to the Final Four. Not bad for a team that lost their last two games.
Kansas comes into the tournament on a high after winning the Big 12 Tournament against Texas over the weekend. Let’s remember, however that Kansas has exited the big dance in the first round the last two years. Certainly, a third exit that early would be historic as no number one seed has ever lost in the first round and it’s not happening here either. Kansas does have an interesting second round match-up with Kentucky or Villanova.
Tubby Smith is on the proverbial “hot seat” in Lexington, but just yesterday we learned that it will be up to Tubby to decide if want to return to the pressure cooker that is Kentucky basketball. For Wildcats fans, anything less than a Final Four appearance in any year is considered a disappointment.
Another interesting team is Duke, losers of six of their last 10 games, placed as a 6 seed in the West? A 6 SEED? Talk about riding your reputation into a higher seed. This Blue Devil team is no better than an eight seed, at best, and a Sweet 16 appearance would be a miracle.
BRACKET BUSTERS?
It’s hard to think of Gonzaga again as an underdog with their successes the last years. Nevertheless, they find themselves in that position when they take on Indiana. Coach Mark Few has said that is team is better without Josh Heytvelt. Now’s his chance to prove it and I believe they will. They are better shooters than Indiana, better rebounders, better free-throw shooters, and turn the ball over less. Additionally, Indiana really struggles away from Assembly Hall. The Bulldogs will upset the Hoosiers and get ANOTHER shot at UCLA over the weekend.
A trendy upset from other sources seems to be Illinois over Virginia Tech. Quite simply, I’m not buying it. Illinois finished last in the Big Ten in field goal percentage and free throw percentage this year, not good stats when it comes to advancing in March. I like the senior leadership that the Hokies bring to the floor with Coleman Collins and All-ACC section Zabian Dowdell. And Deron Washington is a human highlight reel…just do a search for him on YouTube and enjoy.
Another potential first round upset brewing is VCU over Duke. Everyone in the country is aware of Duke’s recent struggles and, unless they can give a better defensive performance, they WILL be out in the first round of the tournament. VCU is ranked 12th nationally in 3-point percentage but they do lack depth. I don’t think that will be a big factor in this game, though, as Duke never plays more than seven players. Whether Duke lives to the weekend will rest on the shoulders of Greg Paulus. Usually, as he goes, Duke goes. At most, however, it’s a one-win tournament for either team as a stellar Pittsburgh team will await the winner.
REST OF THE WEST
While it could be considered a mild upset, an 8/9 match-up is usually a toss-up. The battle of the Wildcats will be determined by the senior leadership of Villanova. Seniors Curtis Sumpter, Mike Nardi, and Will Sheridan are the backbone of this team. Nardi has recently been suffering through a left ankle injury and his health is key to this game. If he’s healthy and “on,” Villanova’s Wildcats should take care of the Kentucky Wildcats without a problem. Kentucky comes into the tournament having lost 6 of 9 and haven’t defeated a ranked team all year. Villanova finished the season ranked 14th in the RPI index. Kentucky's string of 16 straight opening round victories in the NCAA tournament is in serious jeopardy.
Southern Illinois should have no problem with Holy Cross as long as long it stays a half-court game…and it will. The Salukis are the fourth best defensive team in the country, allowing opponents a paltry 56.2 points per game. And, like many mid-majors, Southern Illinois starts four upperclassmen.
Another heavily experienced squad that will have no problem in the first round is Pittsburgh. Three seniors starts for the Panthers and that, combined with all-Big East center Aaron Gray is enough to get Pittsburgh to the Sweet 16 without a problem.
OH, ATLANTA
They had championship weekend to rest and re-focus and they’ll never leave home until they take a charter to the Phoenix city. UCLA is my pick to advance out of the West region and advance to the Final Four.
--Brian Eaves
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