Thursday, August 14, 2008

College Football: My Big 10 Predictions

Big 10 Conference

Ohio State Buckeyes

2007 record 11-2 (Lost to LSU 38-24 in the BCS Championship Game)

The Buckeyes weren’t supposed to go the BCS Championship Game last year but they were there and once again became sacrificial lambs to the SEC.

Things To Like About Ohio State:

They are good, damn good, BCS Championship Game good: 20 starters return from last season. James Laurinatis and Malcom Jenkins decided to skip the NFL for a year and return to Ohio State for their senior seasons. Make that off the charts good.

Defense: The Buckeyes lead the country in defense last season and only lost 2 starters. The Ohio State “D” is full of playmakers and guys that will bring you down and bring you down hard.

Offense: The Buckeyes have the best running back in the Big 10, Chris Wells, the best receivers is the conference in Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline. Ohio State even snagged the best high school quarterback last season, Terrell Pryor but its Todd Boeckman that will lead the Bucks.

Things Not To Like About Ohio State:

At USC September 13: Big test for Ohio State. That’s about the only thing I don’t like.

Dotting The “I”: Ohio State should win every game this year and play Michigan at the Horseshoe. On paper they are clearly the best team in the country and should be playing in the BCS Championship Game again. The question will be will the 3rd time be the charm? Bonus points for beating an SEC team.

Wisconsin Badgers

2007 record 9-4 (Lost to Tennessee 21-17 in the Outback Bowl)

Things To Like About Wisconsin:

Great Backfield: The Badgers have a deep backfield on offense. P.J. Hill is a stud and will be the workhouse but Wisconsin will have plenty of fresh legs to come in so Hill doesn’t take a pounding. Zach Brown and Lance Smith can help keep Hill from getting worn down.

Tight Ends: The Badgers love to throw to the Tight End and they have a couple of good ones. Travis Beckum is one of the best in the country. He’s not big (223 pounds) and not that great of blocker but he is a great target with great hands. His backup Garrett Graham could start elsewhere.

Things Not To Like About Wisconsin:

Quarterback: It’s a battle between Allan Evridge and Dustin Sherer and both are inexperienced.

Offensive Line: Not a good unit last year and will have to prove themselves this year especially with inexperience QB’s

Badger Beat: Wisconsin is due to go to a BCS Bowl Game and this could be the year. Ohio State comes to Camp Randall Stadium October 4th and it’s been over 10 years since the Buckeye have beaten Wisconsin back to back. Other than that the schedule is in the favor. The Big 10 title may not happen but an at large BCS Bowl Berth can happen. Should be a special year in Madison.

Illinois Fighting Illini

2007 record 9-4 (Lost to USC 49-14 in the Rose Bowl)

Illinois had a breakout year last year going to the Rose Bowl. Ron Zook is proving that you can win in a hurry when you recruit the right way.

Things To Like About Illinois:

Juice Williams: He will be asked to handle most of the offensive load with Rashard Mendenhall gone. Williams’ passing has improved greatly and should be able to handle the load.

Vontae Davis: He’s a special talent. Davis is a shutdown corner and tremendous tackler. He’s a game changer on defense.

Young Talent: Ron Zook’s great recruiting classes from the past few years are ready to bust out. Their time has come.

Things Not To Like About Illinois:

Running Back: Rashard Mendenhall’s decision to go the NFL creates a big hole at running back. Daniel Dufrene gets the call now and he can flat out run but being the workhouse back like Mendenhall remains to be scene.

Illini Insider: The talent and athleticism that Ron Zook has accumulated in Champaign is remarkable. I really like Illinois’ long term future. If you expect a drop off from the Illini don’t bet on it. They may have an outside shot of the Big 10 Championship.

Iowa Hawkeyes

2007 record 6-6

They were the Iowa Blackeyes last year. A ton of injuries, off the field issues and then capping off a crappy year by losing to Western Michigan at Kinnick Stadium, not even former Head Coach Hayden Fry could see anything positive through those rose colored glasses of his.

Things To Like About Iowa:

It’s 2008, a new year.

Easy Schedule: No Ohio State or Michigan for the Hawkeyes. Penn State and Wisconsin come to Iowa City. Only tough Big 10 game is at Illinois.

Receivers: Iowa has a great corps. Andy Brodell is a big play guy the Hawkeyes missed last year after ripping his hamstring. Brodell is back and ready to make big plays.

Things Not To Like About Iowa:

No get out of jail cards: Is their really nothing to do in Iowa City? Is life there really that boring? Why else would 14 players get in trouble with the law. Has Head Coach Kirk Ferentz totally lost control?

Running Backs: The Hawkeyes need help there. They went the JUCO route with Nate Guillory to carry the ball. Paki O’Meara impressed during the spring but can he be the workhouse back.

Hawkeye Hotline: Iowa isn’t great but is good. With everyone healthy and if they can stay out of jail, the Hawkeyes could win 10 games with their cake schedule.

Michigan State Spartans

2007 record 7-6 (Lost to Boston College 24-21 in the Champs Bowl)

Michigan State made big steps last year in moving up the Big 10 food chain.

Things To Like About Michigan State:

Jevon Ringer: Michigan State has a go-to running back in Ringer. He could be one of the best backs in the country. Has the perfect blend of size, power & speed>

Offensive Line: Veteran unit that has open holes for Ringer in the past.

Defense: It has the potential to be special. The Spartan “D” is very fast and looks fundamentally sound.

Things Not To Like About Michigan State:

Go To Receiver: Mark Dell needs to become the #1 receiver. If that happens you can move that up to the column above.

Special Teams: Michigan State’s kicking game is decent and will need to be more consistent. Punt returns were a problem to. The longest punt return last year by the Spartans was 18 yards.

Spartan Specifics: You have to love the job Mark Dantonio is doing in East Lansing. He is changing the attitude and culture at Michigan State. The Spartans have had a reputation of curling up in the fetal position when facing adversity. Dantonio didn’t let that happen last year when MSU lost 5 of 6 in mid-season. The Spartans and close to becoming one to the elite programs in the Big 10 it just won’t happen this year.

Penn State Nittany Lions

2007 record 9-4 (Defeated Texas A&M 24-17 in the Alamo Bowl)

Penn State slipped a little last year but the Nittany Lions were still very respectable. Winning a bowl game in Texas A&M’s back yard was huge.

Things To Like About Penn State:

Offensive Line: All 5 starters return. They seem to be the best O-line in the Big 10. They are great at pass protection and can open holes for the running backs.

Defensive Line: They are not real big up front but they are damn good. The Penn State D-Line can control tempo and dominant the game. Yes, they are that good.

Things Not To Like About Penn State:

Settle on a quarterback: Daryll Clark is a senior that has waited his turn, the type of player Joe Paterno usually goes with. Sophomore Pat Devlin will push Clark.

Linebackers: Yes I know, how can I say that about Linebacker “U” without Jack Ham, Shane Conlan & Paul Posluszny kicking my back side but it is an issue this year. That corps is in rebuilding mode and will depend on a former walk-on, Josh Hull

Nittany Nuggets: Joe Paterno may be 81 but he can still coach. Yes he is old and crusty and probably should be enjoying the good life but if Paterno still wants to coach at Penn State, what’s the issue. Paterno’s teams haven’t been that bad. Penn State hasn’t dropped into the abyss of mediocrity like other dinosaur programs like Nebraska, Florida State and Miami.

This Penn State team has the talent to win 10 games and challenge for the Big 10 title but the big 10 schedule doesn’t do the Nittany Lions any favors. Penn State has road games at Ohio State, at Wisconsin and at Iowa. That’s asking a lot.

Michigan Wolverines

2007 record 9-4 (Defeated Florida 41-35 in the Capital One Bowl)

2007 may have started crappy for Lloyd Carr in his final season as head coach of Michigan but he and the Wolverines got the tell the college football world to kiss my a&# by defeating Florida in the Capital One Bowl.

Things To Like About Michigan:

Rich Rodriquez: It was a bold move by Michigan to hire outside the box and bring in Rich Rod and his innovative yet highly successful offense to Ann Arbor. It remains to be seen whether it works in the Big 10 however, you can say Michigan football has arrived in the 21st century. Embrace Rich Rodriquez because he is a terrific coach.

Defensive Line: Some outstanding talent there. Terrence Taylor is a big fella that can stop the run and occupy blockers. All 4 starters return and could jell into the best unit in the Big 10.

Things Not To Like About Michigan:

Change of philosophy on offense: Can Michigan grasp the new offense with Lloyd Carr’s recruits?

Offensive Line: Only 1 returning starter on the O-Line and if this unit can get it down, the offense will sputter. It’s a make or break area for Michigan.

Life At the Big House: Michigan won’t be god awful because of all the big time recruits on the roster but it’s hard to gage the Wolverines. If everything falls into place and the offense performs better than expected, then Michigan will be, well… Michigan. The Wolverines will be tested early hosting Utah and even if it’s a 6 win year at Ann Arbor, if one of those wins is over Ohio State than Rich Rod will be a hero.

Purdue Boilermakers

2007 record 8-5 (Defeated Central Michigan 51-48 in the Motor City Bowl)

Things To Like About Purdue:

Curtis Painter: He could be the Matt Ryan of this year, strong armed veteran quarterback that can make an average team great. Painter could play his way into a first day NFL draft pick and Purdue will need that.

Things Not To Like About Purdue:

Schedule: Who did Purdue tick off at the Big 10 office because the schedule is brutal. At Notre Dame, at Ohio State, at Michigan and hosting Oregon. Ouch!

Serve me up a Boilermaker: It’s Joe Tiller’s final year at Purdue and the Boilermakers want to send Tiller out with a bang. Tiller’s final Purdue team is solid with no major issues and will be focused on a great year for their coach. 7 to 8 wins and a bowl game would be a great retirement gift for Tiller.

Northwestern Wildcats

2007 record 6-6

Had Northwestern not lost to Duke at home, the Wildcats would have gone to a bowl game.

Things To Like About Northwestern:

Mick McCall: He’s Northwestern’s new offensive coordinator and he was a great QB coach at Bowling Green. McCall wants an up tempo offense and the ball in the hands of his playmakers quickly. The Wildcats do have some of those. They should be exciting and tough to stop.

Offense: The Wildcats lead the Big 10 in passing offense and with running back Tyrell Sutton back at full strength, Northwestern will rack up yards and score points.

Things Not To Like About Northwestern:

Must improve defensive pressure: Northwestern failed to generate much of a pass rush last year. The secondary become shell shocked because the opposing quarterback literally had all day to throw the ball. New defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz wants his defense to attack the quarterback. We will see what happens.

Go Northwestern young man: Pat Fitzgerald is building a nice program at Northwestern. One he expects to compete for a Big 10 title every year. 7 wins and a bowl game is realistic for the purple this year.

Indiana Hoosiers

2007 record 7-6 (Lost to Oklahoma State 49-33 in the Insight Bowl)

The best feel good story of 2007. Indiana wanted a bowl game after their head coach Terry Hoeppner passed away from a brain tumor. They did it and it was a great end to Inidana’s season.

Things To Like About Indiana:

Special Teams: Kicker Marcus Starr has shined bright for Indiana. He’s very consistent and can hit the pressure kicks. Starr is one of the best toes in the nation.

Kellen Lewis: Emerged last season as one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 10. Leiws is a duel threat that has the burden of IU’s offense on his shoulders this year. If Lewis can get it down than Indiana has a shot of going bowling again.

Things Not To Like About Indiana:

Stopping the run: The Hoosiers defensive line was manhandled last year in the trenches therefore IU couldn’t stop the run. Good running teams would have big games against Indiana. That has to improve this year.

Hoosier Hype: Can Indiana match 2007’s win total? Well the Hoosiers have 8 home games and can get off to a great start with 3 very winnable games to open the season. Things have to fall their way to match 07.

Minnesota Golden Gophers

2007 record 1-10

Things To Like About Minnesota:

An infusion of JUCO talent: Head Coach Tim Brewster brought in some top junior college talent to upgrade the Gophers now and it should pay off.

Things No To Like About Minnesota:

Defense: Former Duke Head Coach Ted Roof in the new defensive coordinator and he inherits the worst defense in the Big 10. The JUCO talent will help but the Gophers will have to prove they can stop someone.

Gopher Notes: It’s going to be another long year up in Minnesota. The Gophers will win more than one game this year, maybe 3 or 4. Tim Brewster is a great recruiter so the long term prognosis is good and Gopher fans should be encouraged with all the JUCO talent that will be wearing the colors this year. Things will look up for Minnesota.

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