Sunday, December 28, 2008

So What Do You Do Now...?


Three goals per game on average and 30th in the league on the penalty kill...
Most goals allowed in the National Hockey League...
Second to worst record in the league...and the new York Islanders are keeping you from that part of ignominy...
Third worst home record in the league... you play better on the road...
Your star is trying to create too much because there is no real alternative to jump-starting said offense...

Which leaves you with, offically, what...?
An anticipated salary dump somewhere near the trade deadline of any and all of the following individuals on the Atlanta Thrashers roster...

In no order- Jason Williams, Mathieu Schneider, Marty Reasoner, Colby Armstrong, Kari Lehtonen, and yes, even you, Ilya Kovalchuk ((pictured, thanks Gregory Smith/FRE)).

Let's look at the numbers... the Thrashers had to spend up at the last minute acquiring Schneider to get over the $US40-million cap figure. The Atlanta Spirit LLC ownership group has shown no real inclination to spend money in the modern NHL ((translation- spend money to make money or at least break even)). The balance of the Spirit versus Steve Belkin lawsuit is expected to be decided in February. That is, before the land of appeals strikes again.

The current group will not want to show any marketability for either the Thrashers or Hawks franchises, thus driving the market value down and discouraging any interest in building a franchise or a fan base before the verdict. If you don't spend money and the product is stagnant, there will be no interest. If there is no interest, there is no chance at working toward a profitable business venture in athletics.

According to NHLnumbers.com, these are the salary figures for the aforementioned Thrashers for the remainder of their current contracts:

Williams signed for this year only at $US2.2-million
Armstrong signed for this year at US$1.2-million. He then hits status as a restricted free agent. An up and comer, he could fill in nicely on a second-line.
Reasoner signed for this year and US$1-million
Lehtonen signed for this year at US$3-million. He also becomes a RFA.
And then there's Ilya Kovalchuk...

Kovalchuk is one of the game's true talents- when motivated.
He's signed through the end of next season at US$7.5-million. He and agent Rich Grossman are saying all the right things for now, but it would be foolish for Kovalchuk to stay in the current environment created by Atlanta Spirit if he wants to win a Stanley Cup. If he stays for the 2009-2010 season, we will be completely surprised.

Solution: The franchise went young too late last season for any difference to be made on the ice. The move to John Anderson should have been made a lot sooner than in between seasons, but chemistry at the AHL level had to be considered and GM Don Waddell has been hamstrung on a lot of different levels- including what to spend, where, and with whom. He has had to over-spend for mid-level free agents knowing he has had to fill a roster with someone- anyone- to make the minimum cap number.

Anticipate a lot of new faces and draft picks entering Philips Arena after the trade deadline- the "haves" cherry-picking from a "have-not."

Again...

Lehtonen to Los Angeles would be your starting point more than a previously-reported Gaborik-for-Kovalchuk deal in northern papers. The names in return could be from a list of Gauthier, O'Donnell, or Armstrong plus a number one draft pick in the 2009 or 2010 draft.

That's what we thought we'd hear when we told you... crickets...

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